Nice write-up, although I wouldn’t go as far as “doomed”. From my perspective, I’m seeing many affiliate marketers migrate from traditional sales programs to CPA models (pay per download/lead/email/etc.) Programs which otherwise don’t rely on cookies or repeat visitors. Hence, the exponential growth of CPA networks such as Azoogle.

I think this is a trend we’ll continue to see. Although, there is the other side of the coin… where Google is rapidly making it more difficult for these programs to be promoted through PPC, which is a huge traffic driver for these programs.

John replies: Good point about CPA. Too bad Azoogle is one of the few (only?) available CPA options, and even then, not very available yet to many who want to participate. Funny how a company can get a reputation for paying out/playing fair, and get swamped with applications.

To say that the mainstream will get all the pie only has solid foundation if you think there is a finite number of buyers, otherwise, why impose these limitations?

John replies: That’s a good point about representation. I don’t disagree that affiliate marketing can work for the vendor, but I don’t see it continuing to pay off for the affiliate. Take a look closely at who runs those cookie-washing middle companies….they are likely to be former SEOs/Super Affiliates who know the game very, very well.

I see affiliates as duplicate content, you can only have so much duplicate content until it is dropped down into supplemental. :)

BUT there is still a HUGE amount of money to be made in this area fo’ sure.