For each article by a Guy Who Doesn’t Get It, I try to find one from a guy who does, without looking for it by author. I found one. It’s about the “tech industry cycle” and right now, and uses OpenID as an example. Perfect. From the conclusion:
The trick in each cycle is to fight complexity, so the growth can keep going. But you can’t keep it out, engineers like complexity, not just because it provides them job security, also because they really just like it. But once the stack gets too arcane, the next generation throws their hands up and says “We’re not going to deal with that mess.”
And of course, from a tech development perspective (as opposed to a marketing business strategy perspective), OpenID is a glaring irregularity:
For a clue to how deeply mired in crud we are right now, check out this discussion among users and developers about OpenID. No one has a clue what problem its supposed to solve.
The only way this article could be better is if it recognized OpenID as the web-corrupting marketing strategy that it is… adding little value to the web, while locking down market identities for use by the Big Boys. Yeah, them’s fightin’ words, but it’s been obvious since Passport failed and Liberty drew certain tech players into evangelism. As always, watch the people if you want to recognize the underlying mission. Past behavior is indicative of future performance.
For the SEO angle, think abut complexity and how it has consumed so much of our SEO resources. I predict more and more SEO Consultants will be using primarily Google tools for their client SEO project management going forward (to keep costs down and make life easier), and that the SEO Toolsets (such as Raven SEO) will continue to develop as quality, almost comprehensive SEO project management systems (increasing in cost like analytics did after GA was released). Tight communities like SEOBook and Shoemoney Tools will either increase loyalty/commitment or lose focus (the latter not likely for either of those mentioned - they are both valuable to their members).
We might even see some mergers between such tools-based communities and well-established link directory businesses (Best of the Web) and affiliate markets (Pepperjam). Simplicity is key… but hard to achieve, for sure.